Its most likely that final leg down has started. Z wave of this double zigzag has set panic in most participants and mid – small cap stocks are be slaughterer out of their shape. This Z wave has potential of taking Sensex as low as 12000 which is where long term trend line lies. But I hope 15000 is where it should take major support and form a base.
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#1 by piyush on December 21, 2011 - 8:47 pm
sirji why 15000,
its logical to have some panic at end of bear markets. bull continues thru optimism so bear shud continue thru some pessimism. barely broken 1 yr low.
————————————————————————————–frm gold post———–
‘That depends on weather its a corrective wave or implusive. If an impulse then gold should take lesser than 3 months to travel all the way down towards 1.3k mark otherwise we have a corrective wave in place. 1500 $ is tough nut as of now’
from previous gold query. by impulsive move do u mean that the whole 2001-2011 bull market was a corrective and the 1980-2000 bear market impulse and a fresh impulse down starts again.??
dates might be shightly off as not looking into charts right now
#2 by Jazz on December 23, 2011 - 1:05 pm
grossly on valuation front , sensex eps shuld be 1250 this year and 1400 next year, at 15000 it trades at 12 and 10.7 PE respectively which is at lower end of the average. you cant loose on investment if made here. At 12k it will be like sell ur houses, once in a life time opportunity and buy truck load of stocks !!
#3 by piyush on December 21, 2011 - 8:47 pm
test
#4 by piyush on December 23, 2011 - 1:25 pm
on 22 dec close as per bse website p/e (historical)is 16.74. sensex was 15813.
eps comes 944. what u r telling is projections of noted analysts. however noted they may be they may go wrong and it may not be 1250 and 1400 in mar 2012 and mar 2013.
in 27 oct p/e was 10.36. whole nov dec 08 it traded in 11-12 p/e. we are not in any kind of freeze like lehman yet still…. there are threats…. by these calculations it doesnt look like 12000 as worst case to me… i may be wrong..
sirji,
about gold counts????
#5 by piyush on December 31, 2011 - 2:34 pm
happy new year jazzy…
#6 by Jazz on December 31, 2011 - 6:58 pm
im talking abt a corrective wave of the move of this 10 year bull run.
#7 by manunidhi21 on February 16, 2012 - 9:29 am
hi jazzy..long time.. now ur 18k done
from that z or 15k
is it a new bull market?
#8 by Jazz on February 16, 2012 - 10:44 am
hi manu !
happy to see this bull run after many days !!
i think we are in a home run this year.
Cravatex first discussed here at 350 odd is now 660 making new highes daily !!
Almost 100% return in flat 4 months ..cheers.
#9 by piyush on February 18, 2012 - 8:43 pm
jazz,
u got it perfectly correct when u said that we shud take supt at 15000. we are either retracing 6338-4531 or new bull run like 2003-07 what is ur view. request an update of medium and long term counts.